Prediction of Changes in Negative Affect During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Experimental Fear Conditioning and Generalization Measures: A Longitudinal Study

Adverse experiences interact with individual vulnerability in the etiology of mental disorders, but due to the paucity of longitudinal studies, their precise interplay remains unclear. Here, we investigated how individual differences in threat responsiveness modulated adjustments in negative affect during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants (N = 441) underwent a fear conditioning and generalization experiment between 2013 and 2020 and were reassessed regarding anxiety and depression symptoms after the pandemic outbreak. Participants showed increased levels of negative affect following pandemic onset, which were partly modulated by laboratory measures of threat responsiveness. Decreased differentiation of threat and safety signals in participants with higher prepandemic depression and anxiety scores in the laboratory assessment were most predictive of increased symptom levels after the onset of the pandemic. However, effects were small and should be replicated in independent samples to further characterize how individual differences in threat processing interact with adverse experiences in the development of psychopathology.

Social cognitive factors outweigh negative emotionality in predicting COVID-19 related safety behaviors.

Emotion-motivation models propose that behaviors, including health behaviors, should be predicted by the same variables that also predict negative affect since emotional reactions should induce a motivation to avoid threatening situations. In contrast, social cognitive models propose that safety behaviors are predicted by a different set of variables that mainly reflect cognitive and socio-structural aspects. Here, we directly tested these opposing hypotheses in young adults (N = 4134) in the context of COVID-19-related safety behaviors to prevent infections. In each participant, we collected measures of negative affect as well as cognitive and socio-structural variables during the lockdown in the first infection wave in Germany. We found a negative effect of the pandemic on emotional responses. However, this was not the main predictor for young adults' willingness to comply with COVID-19-related safety measures. Instead, individual differences in compliance were mainly predicted by cognitive and socio-structural variables. These results were confirmed in an independent data set. This study shows that individuals scoring high on negative affect during the pandemic are not necessarily more likely to comply with safety regulations. Instead, political measures should focus on cognitive interventions and the societal relevance of the health issue. These findings provide important insights into the basis of health-related concerns and feelings as well as behavioral adaptations.